Dated inputs, measured movements and the limits of each comparison.
Why prices changed
Gasoline / petrol
+0.111 AUD/L (+4.991%)
The gasoline price moved from 2.224 on 2026-09-20 to 2.335 on 2026-09-27. The chart reconciles the measured change using the site’s accounting model.
Crude benchmark movement
-0.042
Exchange-rate movement
+0.013
Refining & distribution residual
+0.130
Taxes
+0.010
Rounding / unallocated remainder
+0.000
Contribution values
Estimated accounting contributions, AUD/L
Component
Change
Crude benchmark movement
-0.042
Exchange-rate movement
+0.013
Refining & distribution residual
+0.130
Taxes
+0.010
Rounding / unallocated remainder
+0.000
Left: decrease. Right: increase. Oil is valued at the earlier FX rate; currency movement uses the later oil price. The downstream residual includes unmeasured costs and timing, not just margins. Taxes can change with prices without a policy change. This is accounting, not proof of causation.
Diesel
+0.156 AUD/L (+5.721%)
The diesel price moved from 2.727 on 2026-09-20 to 2.883 on 2026-09-27. The chart reconciles the measured change using the site’s accounting model.
Crude benchmark movement
-0.042
Exchange-rate movement
+0.013
Refining & distribution residual
+0.171
Taxes
+0.014
Rounding / unallocated remainder
-0.000
Contribution values
Estimated accounting contributions, AUD/L
Component
Change
Crude benchmark movement
-0.042
Exchange-rate movement
+0.013
Refining & distribution residual
+0.171
Taxes
+0.014
Rounding / unallocated remainder
-0.000
Left: decrease. Right: increase. Oil is valued at the earlier FX rate; currency movement uses the later oil price. The downstream residual includes unmeasured costs and timing, not just margins. Taxes can change with prices without a policy change. This is accounting, not proof of causation.
Reporting around these observation dates
Source headlines provide context. Their presence does not establish what caused the price movement.
No matching source reports are available for this observation interval.
Oil fell. Did the pump follow?
Gasoline / petrol
Does local crude movement line up more closely with pump changes in the same week or later? This compares weekly changes at delays of 0 to 8 weeks over up to five years, using the latest continuous publisher and currency segment.
Relative movements, not a breakdown of pump costs. Crude is a proxy, not wholesale fuel.Chart data and publishers (4 observations)
Date
Pump, AUD/L
Crude proxy, local / L
Publisher
2026-09-06
2.027
0.893
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-13
2.065
1.035
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-20
2.224
1.057
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-27
2.335
1.028
Australian Institute of Petroleum
3 compatible weekly changes; at least 52 are required for lag analysis.
At least 52 compatible weekly changes are needed; each correlation needs 12 pairs and variation in both series. Joins allow one day of reporting-date variation. Missing weeks are not filled. Each later pump change covers one week, not a cumulative response. Correlation does not measure a causal pass-through delay or prove that rises travel faster than falls. No forecast is implied. Benchmark and FX inputs are no more than 10 days old and never from a future date.
Diesel
Does local crude movement line up more closely with pump changes in the same week or later? This compares weekly changes at delays of 0 to 8 weeks over up to five years, using the latest continuous publisher and currency segment.
Relative movements, not a breakdown of pump costs. Crude is a proxy, not wholesale fuel.Chart data and publishers (4 observations)
Date
Pump, AUD/L
Crude proxy, local / L
Publisher
2026-09-06
2.500
0.893
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-13
2.550
1.035
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-20
2.727
1.057
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-27
2.883
1.028
Australian Institute of Petroleum
3 compatible weekly changes; at least 52 are required for lag analysis.
At least 52 compatible weekly changes are needed; each correlation needs 12 pairs and variation in both series. Joins allow one day of reporting-date variation. Missing weeks are not filled. Each later pump change covers one week, not a cumulative response. Correlation does not measure a causal pass-through delay or prove that rises travel faster than falls. No forecast is implied. Benchmark and FX inputs are no more than 10 days old and never from a future date.
Policy dates alongside prices
Gasoline / petrolNo curated policy events fall within the displayed price history.Chart data and publishers (4 observations)
Date
Pump, AUD/L
Publisher
2026-09-06
2.027
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-13
2.065
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-20
2.224
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-27
2.335
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2022-03-30
Australian fuel excise temporarily halved
Temporary measure from 30 March through 28 September 2022. A numeric household estimate is withheld until the applicable before and after rates are recorded.
A monetary impact is not estimated from the available verified rates.
DieselNo curated policy events fall within the displayed price history.Chart data and publishers (4 observations)
Date
Pump, AUD/L
Publisher
2026-09-06
2.500
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-13
2.550
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-20
2.727
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-27
2.883
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2022-03-30
Australian fuel excise temporarily halved
Temporary measure from 30 March through 28 September 2022. A numeric household estimate is withheld until the applicable before and after rates are recorded.
A monetary impact is not estimated from the available verified rates.
Publisher: Australian Institute of Petroleum. Observation: 2026-09-27. Last successful publisher refresh: 2026-09-30 07:43:10 UTC. Observation ingestion: 2026-09-30 07:41:33 UTC.
Original value: 233.5 AUD cents/L. Display: 2.335000 AUD/L. Method: derived.
Derived method: crude = USD/barrel / 158.987 * local currency/USD; yield factor 1.0; downstream = price - taxes - crude. Currency conversion uses display FX / source FX; US gallons convert at 3.785411784 L. Missing inputs are never zero. Benchmark availability alone does not imply a complete component breakdown. Full methodology.
Publication and revision history (3 saved versions)
Tracking begins with this feature’s first export. A new observation is a publication; a changed value for the same observation date is a revision. This is our publication history, not a complete publisher revision archive. At most 30 versions per fuel are shown; the canonical database retains all recorded versions.
Recorded (UTC)
Observation
Price / L
Version
2026-09-30T07:44:54.654512Z
2026-09-27
2.335000 AUD
d5a227fc210c
2026-09-24T13:02:09Z
2026-09-20
2.224000 AUD
7d94db7f3a37
2026-09-23T06:02:22Z
2026-09-20
2.224000 AUD
b0a0949a3a1e
Diesel
Publisher: Australian Institute of Petroleum. Observation: 2026-09-27. Last successful publisher refresh: 2026-09-30 07:43:10 UTC. Observation ingestion: 2026-09-30 07:42:44 UTC.
Original value: 288.3 AUD cents/L. Display: 2.883000 AUD/L. Method: derived.
Derived method: crude = USD/barrel / 158.987 * local currency/USD; yield factor 1.0; downstream = price - taxes - crude. Currency conversion uses display FX / source FX; US gallons convert at 3.785411784 L. Missing inputs are never zero. Benchmark availability alone does not imply a complete component breakdown. Full methodology.
Publication and revision history (3 saved versions)
Tracking begins with this feature’s first export. A new observation is a publication; a changed value for the same observation date is a revision. This is our publication history, not a complete publisher revision archive. At most 30 versions per fuel are shown; the canonical database retains all recorded versions.