Dated inputs, measured movements and the limits of each comparison.
Why prices changed
Gasoline / petrol
+0.103 AUD/L (+4.514%)
The gasoline price moved from 2.282 on 2026-09-20 to 2.385 on 2026-09-27. The chart reconciles the measured change using the site’s accounting model.
Crude benchmark movement
-0.042
Exchange-rate movement
+0.013
Refining & distribution residual
+0.123
Taxes
+0.009
Rounding / unallocated remainder
+0.000
Contribution values
Estimated accounting contributions, AUD/L
Component
Change
Crude benchmark movement
-0.042
Exchange-rate movement
+0.013
Refining & distribution residual
+0.123
Taxes
+0.009
Rounding / unallocated remainder
+0.000
Left: decrease. Right: increase. Oil is valued at the earlier FX rate; currency movement uses the later oil price. The downstream residual includes unmeasured costs and timing, not just margins. Taxes can change with prices without a policy change. This is accounting, not proof of causation.
Diesel
+0.131 AUD/L (+4.758%)
The diesel price moved from 2.753 on 2026-09-20 to 2.884 on 2026-09-27. The chart reconciles the measured change using the site’s accounting model.
Crude benchmark movement
-0.042
Exchange-rate movement
+0.013
Refining & distribution residual
+0.148
Taxes
+0.012
Rounding / unallocated remainder
+0.000
Contribution values
Estimated accounting contributions, AUD/L
Component
Change
Crude benchmark movement
-0.042
Exchange-rate movement
+0.013
Refining & distribution residual
+0.148
Taxes
+0.012
Rounding / unallocated remainder
+0.000
Left: decrease. Right: increase. Oil is valued at the earlier FX rate; currency movement uses the later oil price. The downstream residual includes unmeasured costs and timing, not just margins. Taxes can change with prices without a policy change. This is accounting, not proof of causation.
Reporting around these observation dates
Source headlines provide context. Their presence does not establish what caused the price movement.
No matching source reports are available for this observation interval.
Oil fell. Did the pump follow?
Gasoline / petrol
Does local crude movement line up more closely with pump changes in the same week or later? This compares weekly changes at delays of 0 to 8 weeks over up to five years, using the latest continuous publisher and currency segment.
Relative movements, not a breakdown of pump costs. Crude is a proxy, not wholesale fuel.Chart data and publishers (4 observations)
Date
Pump, AUD/L
Crude proxy, local / L
Publisher
2026-09-06
2.061
0.893
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-13
2.126
1.035
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-20
2.282
1.057
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-27
2.385
1.028
Australian Institute of Petroleum
3 compatible weekly changes; at least 52 are required for lag analysis.
At least 52 compatible weekly changes are needed; each correlation needs 12 pairs and variation in both series. Joins allow one day of reporting-date variation. Missing weeks are not filled. Each later pump change covers one week, not a cumulative response. Correlation does not measure a causal pass-through delay or prove that rises travel faster than falls. No forecast is implied. Benchmark and FX inputs are no more than 10 days old and never from a future date.
Diesel
Does local crude movement line up more closely with pump changes in the same week or later? This compares weekly changes at delays of 0 to 8 weeks over up to five years, using the latest continuous publisher and currency segment.
Relative movements, not a breakdown of pump costs. Crude is a proxy, not wholesale fuel.Chart data and publishers (4 observations)
Date
Pump, AUD/L
Crude proxy, local / L
Publisher
2026-09-06
2.539
0.893
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-13
2.592
1.035
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-20
2.753
1.057
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-27
2.884
1.028
Australian Institute of Petroleum
3 compatible weekly changes; at least 52 are required for lag analysis.
At least 52 compatible weekly changes are needed; each correlation needs 12 pairs and variation in both series. Joins allow one day of reporting-date variation. Missing weeks are not filled. Each later pump change covers one week, not a cumulative response. Correlation does not measure a causal pass-through delay or prove that rises travel faster than falls. No forecast is implied. Benchmark and FX inputs are no more than 10 days old and never from a future date.
Policy dates alongside prices
Gasoline / petrolNo curated policy events fall within the displayed price history.Chart data and publishers (4 observations)
Date
Pump, AUD/L
Publisher
2026-09-06
2.061
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-13
2.126
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-20
2.282
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-27
2.385
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2022-03-30
Australian fuel excise temporarily halved
Temporary measure from 30 March through 28 September 2022. A numeric household estimate is withheld until the applicable before and after rates are recorded.
A monetary impact is not estimated from the available verified rates.
DieselNo curated policy events fall within the displayed price history.Chart data and publishers (4 observations)
Date
Pump, AUD/L
Publisher
2026-09-06
2.539
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-13
2.592
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-20
2.753
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2026-09-27
2.884
Australian Institute of Petroleum
2022-03-30
Australian fuel excise temporarily halved
Temporary measure from 30 March through 28 September 2022. A numeric household estimate is withheld until the applicable before and after rates are recorded.
A monetary impact is not estimated from the available verified rates.
Publisher: Australian Institute of Petroleum. Observation: 2026-09-27. Last successful publisher refresh: 2026-09-30 07:43:10 UTC. Observation ingestion: 2026-09-30 07:41:24 UTC.
Original value: 238.5 AUD cents/L. Display: 2.385000 AUD/L. Method: derived.
Derived method: crude = USD/barrel / 158.987 * local currency/USD; yield factor 1.0; downstream = price - taxes - crude. Currency conversion uses display FX / source FX; US gallons convert at 3.785411784 L. Missing inputs are never zero. Benchmark availability alone does not imply a complete component breakdown. Full methodology.
Publication and revision history (3 saved versions)
Tracking begins with this feature’s first export. A new observation is a publication; a changed value for the same observation date is a revision. This is our publication history, not a complete publisher revision archive. At most 30 versions per fuel are shown; the canonical database retains all recorded versions.
Recorded (UTC)
Observation
Price / L
Version
2026-09-30T07:44:54.774718Z
2026-09-27
2.385000 AUD
b5b7085652b8
2026-09-24T13:02:09Z
2026-09-20
2.282000 AUD
c9cdeb55c074
2026-09-23T06:02:22Z
2026-09-20
2.282000 AUD
85886cbf1145
Diesel
Publisher: Australian Institute of Petroleum. Observation: 2026-09-27. Last successful publisher refresh: 2026-09-30 07:43:10 UTC. Observation ingestion: 2026-09-30 07:42:35 UTC.
Original value: 288.4 AUD cents/L. Display: 2.884000 AUD/L. Method: derived.
Derived method: crude = USD/barrel / 158.987 * local currency/USD; yield factor 1.0; downstream = price - taxes - crude. Currency conversion uses display FX / source FX; US gallons convert at 3.785411784 L. Missing inputs are never zero. Benchmark availability alone does not imply a complete component breakdown. Full methodology.
Publication and revision history (3 saved versions)
Tracking begins with this feature’s first export. A new observation is a publication; a changed value for the same observation date is a revision. This is our publication history, not a complete publisher revision archive. At most 30 versions per fuel are shown; the canonical database retains all recorded versions.