What Gas Costs
and Why
An independent guide to the price at the pumpData release · 30 September 2026
Home / Chicago (US) | Fuel price evidence

The evidence behind the price

Chicago: what changed?

Dated inputs, measured movements and the limits of each comparison.

Why prices changed

Gasoline / petrol

-0.032 USD/L (-2.460%)

The gasoline price moved from 1.289 on 2026-09-21 to 1.257 on 2026-09-28. The price change is measured, but its components cannot be reliably allocated.

Contribution values
Estimated accounting contributions, USD/L
ComponentChange
Unallocated change: comparable components unavailable-0.032

Left: decrease. Right: increase. Oil is valued at the earlier FX rate; currency movement uses the later oil price. The downstream residual includes unmeasured costs and timing, not just margins. Taxes can change with prices without a policy change. This is accounting, not proof of causation.

Diesel

No comparable weekly observations are available.

Reporting around these observation dates

Source headlines provide context. Their presence does not establish what caused the price movement.

Oil fell. Did the pump follow?

Gasoline / petrol

Does local crude movement line up more closely with pump changes in the same week or later? This compares weekly changes at delays of 0 to 8 weeks over up to five years, using the latest continuous publisher and currency segment.

Pump price and local-currency crude, indexed to 1002025-08-11 to 2026-09-28. Navy is pump price; teal is crude. A data table follows.047951421892025-08-112026-09-28Pump price (navy) · Crude in local currency (teal) · First paired date = 100
Relative movements, not a breakdown of pump costs. Crude is a proxy, not wholesale fuel.
Chart data and publishers (60 observations)
DatePump, USD/LCrude proxy, local / LPublisher
2025-08-110.9050.409US Energy Information Administration
2025-08-180.9230.406US Energy Information Administration
2025-08-250.9130.410US Energy Information Administration
2025-09-010.9660.405US Energy Information Administration
2025-09-080.9490.394US Energy Information Administration
2025-09-150.9300.400US Energy Information Administration
2025-09-220.9160.396US Energy Information Administration
2025-09-290.9220.404US Energy Information Administration
2025-10-060.9010.393US Energy Information Administration
2025-10-130.8570.376US Energy Information Administration
2025-10-200.8400.367US Energy Information Administration
2025-10-270.8860.391US Energy Information Administration
2025-11-030.8580.389US Energy Information Administration
2025-11-100.8800.383US Energy Information Administration
2025-11-170.8600.382US Energy Information Administration
2025-11-240.8800.372US Energy Information Administration
2025-12-010.8410.374US Energy Information Administration
2025-12-080.8180.371US Energy Information Administration
2025-12-150.8130.358US Energy Information Administration
2025-12-220.7900.366US Energy Information Administration
2025-12-290.7970.364US Energy Information Administration
2026-01-050.7770.365US Energy Information Administration
2026-01-120.7720.374US Energy Information Administration
2026-01-190.7700.374US Energy Information Administration
2026-01-260.7850.380US Energy Information Administration
2026-02-020.7760.387US Energy Information Administration
2026-02-090.7940.406US Energy Information Administration
2026-02-160.7960.397US Energy Information Administration
2026-02-230.7680.417US Energy Information Administration
2026-03-020.8000.447US Energy Information Administration
2026-03-090.9390.595US Energy Information Administration
2026-03-160.9540.587US Energy Information Administration
2026-03-231.1040.562US Energy Information Administration
2026-03-301.1230.658US Energy Information Administration
2026-04-061.1180.717US Energy Information Administration
2026-04-131.1480.634US Energy Information Administration
2026-04-201.1210.573US Energy Information Administration
2026-04-271.1300.628US Energy Information Administration
2026-05-041.3000.690US Energy Information Administration
2026-05-111.2770.639US Energy Information Administration
2026-05-181.3200.706US Energy Information Administration
2026-05-251.2740.631US Energy Information Administration
2026-06-011.2310.604US Energy Information Administration
2026-06-081.1680.598US Energy Information Administration
2026-06-151.1250.532US Energy Information Administration
2026-06-221.0780.497US Energy Information Administration
2026-06-291.0610.452US Energy Information Administration
2026-07-061.0280.438US Energy Information Administration
2026-07-131.0520.498US Energy Information Administration
2026-07-201.0650.531US Energy Information Administration
2026-07-271.0910.530US Energy Information Administration
2026-08-031.1290.516US Energy Information Administration
2026-08-101.1010.527US Energy Information Administration
2026-08-171.1330.541US Energy Information Administration
2026-08-241.1490.543US Energy Information Administration
2026-08-311.1210.547US Energy Information Administration
2026-09-071.1410.583US Energy Information Administration
2026-09-141.1680.644US Energy Information Administration
2026-09-211.2890.610US Energy Information Administration
2026-09-281.2570.606US Energy Information Administration
Correlation of weekly changes, from -1 (opposite) to +1 (together)
DelayAll changesOil increasesOil decreases
0 weeks0.42 (59 pairs)0.68 (28)0.07 (31)
1 weeks0.31 (58 pairs)0.15 (28)0.24 (30)
2 weeks0.25 (57 pairs)0.38 (28)-0.12 (29)
3 weeks-0.07 (56 pairs)-0.07 (27)-0.13 (29)
4 weeks0.13 (55 pairs)-0.11 (26)0.02 (29)
5 weeks0.13 (54 pairs)0.12 (25)-0.01 (29)
6 weeks-0.03 (53 pairs)-0.33 (24)0.19 (29)
7 weeks-0.05 (52 pairs)-0.19 (23)0.19 (29)
8 weeks0.28 (51 pairs)0.12 (22)0.26 (29)

At least 52 compatible weekly changes are needed; each correlation needs 12 pairs and variation in both series. Joins allow one day of reporting-date variation. Missing weeks are not filled. Each later pump change covers one week, not a cumulative response. Correlation does not measure a causal pass-through delay or prove that rises travel faster than falls. No forecast is implied. Benchmark and FX inputs are no more than 10 days old and never from a future date.

Diesel

Does local crude movement line up more closely with pump changes in the same week or later? This compares weekly changes at delays of 0 to 8 weeks over up to five years, using the latest continuous publisher and currency segment.

No compatible history is available for this chart.

No historical observations available.

At least 52 compatible weekly changes are needed; each correlation needs 12 pairs and variation in both series. Joins allow one day of reporting-date variation. Missing weeks are not filled. Each later pump change covers one week, not a cumulative response. Correlation does not measure a causal pass-through delay or prove that rises travel faster than falls. No forecast is implied. Benchmark and FX inputs are no more than 10 days old and never from a future date.

Policy dates alongside prices

Gasoline / petrol
USD per litre, with policy event dates2021-10-04 to 2026-09-28. Dashed lines mark verified policy events; they do not establish causation. A data table follows.0.000.410.831.241.662021-10-042026-09-28US Energy Information Administration · USD/L
No curated policy events fall within the displayed price history.
Chart data and publishers (261 observations)
DatePump, USD/LPublisher
2021-10-040.904US Energy Information Administration
2021-10-110.924US Energy Information Administration
2021-10-180.931US Energy Information Administration
2021-10-250.940US Energy Information Administration
2021-11-010.935US Energy Information Administration
2021-11-080.955US Energy Information Administration
2021-11-150.940US Energy Information Administration
2021-11-220.942US Energy Information Administration
2021-11-290.925US Energy Information Administration
2021-12-060.920US Energy Information Administration
2021-12-130.904US Energy Information Administration
2021-12-200.894US Energy Information Administration
2021-12-270.882US Energy Information Administration
2022-01-030.877US Energy Information Administration
2022-01-100.913US Energy Information Administration
2022-01-170.899US Energy Information Administration
2022-01-240.910US Energy Information Administration
2022-01-310.928US Energy Information Administration
2022-02-070.956US Energy Information Administration
2022-02-140.972US Energy Information Administration
2022-02-210.983US Energy Information Administration
2022-02-281.036US Energy Information Administration
2022-03-071.163US Energy Information Administration
2022-03-141.207US Energy Information Administration
2022-03-211.197US Energy Information Administration
2022-03-281.198US Energy Information Administration
2022-04-041.182US Energy Information Administration
2022-04-111.165US Energy Information Administration
2022-04-181.160US Energy Information Administration
2022-04-251.175US Energy Information Administration
2022-05-021.180US Energy Information Administration
2022-05-091.234US Energy Information Administration
2022-05-161.302US Energy Information Administration
2022-05-231.356US Energy Information Administration
2022-05-301.391US Energy Information Administration
2022-06-061.474US Energy Information Administration
2022-06-131.533US Energy Information Administration
2022-06-201.517US Energy Information Administration
2022-06-271.492US Energy Information Administration
2022-07-041.462US Energy Information Administration
2022-07-111.419US Energy Information Administration
2022-07-181.384US Energy Information Administration
2022-07-251.333US Energy Information Administration
2022-08-011.282US Energy Information Administration
2022-08-081.231US Energy Information Administration
2022-08-151.189US Energy Information Administration
2022-08-221.178US Energy Information Administration
2022-08-291.155US Energy Information Administration
2022-09-051.141US Energy Information Administration
2022-09-121.113US Energy Information Administration
2022-09-191.077US Energy Information Administration
2022-09-261.083US Energy Information Administration
2022-10-031.122US Energy Information Administration
2022-10-101.204US Energy Information Administration
2022-10-171.179US Energy Information Administration
2022-10-241.152US Energy Information Administration
2022-10-311.127US Energy Information Administration
2022-11-071.184US Energy Information Administration
2022-11-141.126US Energy Information Administration
2022-11-211.078US Energy Information Administration
2022-11-281.030US Energy Information Administration
2022-12-050.967US Energy Information Administration
2022-12-120.916US Energy Information Administration
2022-12-190.881US Energy Information Administration
2022-12-260.859US Energy Information Administration
2023-01-020.870US Energy Information Administration
2023-01-090.904US Energy Information Administration
2023-01-160.941US Energy Information Administration
2023-01-230.937US Energy Information Administration
2023-01-300.988US Energy Information Administration
2023-02-060.965US Energy Information Administration
2023-02-130.949US Energy Information Administration
2023-02-200.928US Energy Information Administration
2023-02-270.935US Energy Information Administration
2023-03-060.939US Energy Information Administration
2023-03-130.965US Energy Information Administration
2023-03-200.957US Energy Information Administration
2023-03-270.982US Energy Information Administration
2023-04-031.036US Energy Information Administration
2023-04-101.068US Energy Information Administration
2023-04-171.102US Energy Information Administration
2023-04-241.106US Energy Information Administration
2023-05-011.103US Energy Information Administration
2023-05-081.083US Energy Information Administration
2023-05-151.071US Energy Information Administration
2023-05-221.083US Energy Information Administration
2023-05-291.090US Energy Information Administration
2023-06-051.069US Energy Information Administration
2023-06-121.106US Energy Information Administration
2023-06-191.136US Energy Information Administration
2023-06-261.107US Energy Information Administration
2023-07-031.069US Energy Information Administration
2023-07-101.050US Energy Information Administration
2023-07-171.059US Energy Information Administration
2023-07-241.046US Energy Information Administration
2023-07-311.092US Energy Information Administration
2023-08-071.110US Energy Information Administration
2023-08-141.163US Energy Information Administration
2023-08-211.147US Energy Information Administration
2023-08-281.129US Energy Information Administration
2023-09-041.107US Energy Information Administration
2023-09-111.085US Energy Information Administration
2023-09-181.075US Energy Information Administration
2023-09-251.047US Energy Information Administration
2023-10-021.008US Energy Information Administration
2023-10-090.971US Energy Information Administration
2023-10-160.958US Energy Information Administration
2023-10-230.960US Energy Information Administration
2023-10-300.938US Energy Information Administration
2023-11-060.939US Energy Information Administration
2023-11-130.949US Energy Information Administration
2023-11-200.933US Energy Information Administration
2023-11-270.911US Energy Information Administration
2023-12-040.896US Energy Information Administration
2023-12-110.873US Energy Information Administration
2023-12-180.832US Energy Information Administration
2023-12-250.816US Energy Information Administration
2024-01-010.787US Energy Information Administration
2024-01-080.803US Energy Information Administration
2024-01-150.835US Energy Information Administration
2024-01-220.877US Energy Information Administration
2024-01-290.854US Energy Information Administration
2024-02-050.849US Energy Information Administration
2024-02-120.895US Energy Information Administration
2024-02-190.936US Energy Information Administration
2024-02-260.929US Energy Information Administration
2024-03-041.011US Energy Information Administration
2024-03-110.994US Energy Information Administration
2024-03-180.992US Energy Information Administration
2024-03-251.048US Energy Information Administration
2024-04-011.035US Energy Information Administration
2024-04-081.084US Energy Information Administration
2024-04-151.076US Energy Information Administration
2024-04-221.053US Energy Information Administration
2024-04-291.069US Energy Information Administration
2024-05-061.050US Energy Information Administration
2024-05-131.064US Energy Information Administration
2024-05-201.055US Energy Information Administration
2024-05-271.140US Energy Information Administration
2024-06-031.080US Energy Information Administration
2024-06-101.046US Energy Information Administration
2024-06-171.038US Energy Information Administration
2024-06-241.050US Energy Information Administration
2024-07-011.065US Energy Information Administration
2024-07-081.043US Energy Information Administration
2024-07-151.061US Energy Information Administration
2024-07-221.103US Energy Information Administration
2024-07-291.128US Energy Information Administration
2024-08-051.093US Energy Information Administration
2024-08-121.064US Energy Information Administration
2024-08-191.034US Energy Information Administration
2024-08-260.994US Energy Information Administration
2024-09-020.982US Energy Information Administration
2024-09-090.952US Energy Information Administration
2024-09-160.926US Energy Information Administration
2024-09-230.940US Energy Information Administration
2024-09-300.971US Energy Information Administration
2024-10-070.940US Energy Information Administration
2024-10-140.954US Energy Information Administration
2024-10-210.917US Energy Information Administration
2024-10-280.885US Energy Information Administration
2024-11-040.882US Energy Information Administration
2024-11-110.856US Energy Information Administration
2024-11-180.866US Energy Information Administration
2024-11-250.861US Energy Information Administration
2024-12-020.884US Energy Information Administration
2024-12-090.850US Energy Information Administration
2024-12-160.871US Energy Information Administration
2024-12-230.893US Energy Information Administration
2024-12-300.878US Energy Information Administration
2025-01-060.869US Energy Information Administration
2025-01-130.878US Energy Information Administration
2025-01-200.888US Energy Information Administration
2025-01-270.888US Energy Information Administration
2025-02-030.873US Energy Information Administration
2025-02-100.879US Energy Information Administration
2025-02-170.887US Energy Information Administration
2025-02-240.875US Energy Information Administration
2025-03-030.859US Energy Information Administration
2025-03-100.870US Energy Information Administration
2025-03-170.870US Energy Information Administration
2025-03-240.931US Energy Information Administration
2025-03-310.940US Energy Information Administration
2025-04-070.937US Energy Information Administration
2025-04-140.905US Energy Information Administration
2025-04-210.898US Energy Information Administration
2025-04-280.900US Energy Information Administration
2025-05-050.889US Energy Information Administration
2025-05-120.910US Energy Information Administration
2025-05-190.894US Energy Information Administration
2025-05-260.919US Energy Information Administration
2025-06-020.904US Energy Information Administration
2025-06-090.898US Energy Information Administration
2025-06-160.948US Energy Information Administration
2025-06-230.940US Energy Information Administration
2025-06-300.938US Energy Information Administration
2025-07-070.923US Energy Information Administration
2025-07-140.945US Energy Information Administration
2025-07-210.934US Energy Information Administration
2025-07-280.915US Energy Information Administration
2025-08-040.931US Energy Information Administration
2025-08-110.905US Energy Information Administration
2025-08-180.923US Energy Information Administration
2025-08-250.913US Energy Information Administration
2025-09-010.966US Energy Information Administration
2025-09-080.949US Energy Information Administration
2025-09-150.930US Energy Information Administration
2025-09-220.916US Energy Information Administration
2025-09-290.922US Energy Information Administration
2025-10-060.901US Energy Information Administration
2025-10-130.857US Energy Information Administration
2025-10-200.840US Energy Information Administration
2025-10-270.886US Energy Information Administration
2025-11-030.858US Energy Information Administration
2025-11-100.880US Energy Information Administration
2025-11-170.860US Energy Information Administration
2025-11-240.880US Energy Information Administration
2025-12-010.841US Energy Information Administration
2025-12-080.818US Energy Information Administration
2025-12-150.813US Energy Information Administration
2025-12-220.790US Energy Information Administration
2025-12-290.797US Energy Information Administration
2026-01-050.777US Energy Information Administration
2026-01-120.772US Energy Information Administration
2026-01-190.770US Energy Information Administration
2026-01-260.785US Energy Information Administration
2026-02-020.776US Energy Information Administration
2026-02-090.794US Energy Information Administration
2026-02-160.796US Energy Information Administration
2026-02-230.768US Energy Information Administration
2026-03-020.800US Energy Information Administration
2026-03-090.939US Energy Information Administration
2026-03-160.954US Energy Information Administration
2026-03-231.104US Energy Information Administration
2026-03-301.123US Energy Information Administration
2026-04-061.118US Energy Information Administration
2026-04-131.148US Energy Information Administration
2026-04-201.121US Energy Information Administration
2026-04-271.130US Energy Information Administration
2026-05-041.300US Energy Information Administration
2026-05-111.277US Energy Information Administration
2026-05-181.320US Energy Information Administration
2026-05-251.274US Energy Information Administration
2026-06-011.231US Energy Information Administration
2026-06-081.168US Energy Information Administration
2026-06-151.125US Energy Information Administration
2026-06-221.078US Energy Information Administration
2026-06-291.061US Energy Information Administration
2026-07-061.028US Energy Information Administration
2026-07-131.052US Energy Information Administration
2026-07-201.065US Energy Information Administration
2026-07-271.091US Energy Information Administration
2026-08-031.129US Energy Information Administration
2026-08-101.101US Energy Information Administration
2026-08-171.133US Energy Information Administration
2026-08-241.149US Energy Information Administration
2026-08-311.121US Energy Information Administration
2026-09-071.141US Energy Information Administration
2026-09-141.168US Energy Information Administration
2026-09-211.289US Energy Information Administration
2026-09-281.257US Energy Information Administration

No legal policy events have been curated for this region yet. This is not evidence that policy has been unchanged.

Event coverage is selective. Source tax-rate snapshots are not automatically treated as legal changes. Upcoming recorded tax dates · All regional tax records

Diesel

No compatible history is available for this chart.

No legal policy events have been curated for this region yet. This is not evidence that policy has been unchanged.

Event coverage is selective. Source tax-rate snapshots are not automatically treated as legal changes. Upcoming recorded tax dates · All regional tax records

Source receipts

Gasoline / petrol

Publisher: US Energy Information Administration. Observation: 2026-09-28. Last successful publisher refresh: 2026-09-30 07:39:45 UTC. Observation ingestion: 2026-09-30 07:39:44 UTC.

Original value: 4.759 USD USD/gal. Display: 1.257195 USD/L. Method: unavailable.

Crude input
WTI 96.41 USD/barrel, 2026-09-22
Display currency FX
USD_USD 1, 2026-09-28
Source currency FX
USD_USD 1, 2026-09-28
Reuse terms
US government public data

Derived method: crude = USD/barrel / 158.987 * local currency/USD; yield factor 1.0; downstream = price - taxes - crude. Currency conversion uses display FX / source FX; US gallons convert at 3.785411784 L. Missing inputs are never zero. Benchmark availability alone does not imply a complete component breakdown. Full methodology.

Download receipts and calculation inputs · Historical observations

Publication and revision history (2 saved versions)

Tracking begins with this feature’s first export. A new observation is a publication; a changed value for the same observation date is a revision. This is our publication history, not a complete publisher revision archive. At most 30 versions per fuel are shown; the canonical database retains all recorded versions.

Recorded (UTC)ObservationPrice / LVersion
2026-09-30T07:44:55.470533Z2026-09-281.257195 USDb18d60785af0
2026-09-23T06:02:25Z2026-09-071.141487 USD0c715353063c
Diesel

A calculation receipt will be recorded on the next data export.

Chicago price overview · Embed this region’s chart