Follow the evidence
Oil-to-pump tracker
Compare local pump-price changes with dated crude and currency inputs at delays of zero to eight weeks.
Explore five years of compatible history, including separate comparisons for oil-price rises and falls. These are descriptive correlations, not forecasts or proof of causation.
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United Kingdom: gasoline example
Does local crude movement line up more closely with pump changes in the same week or later? This compares weekly changes at delays of 0 to 8 weeks over up to five years, using the latest continuous publisher and currency segment.
Chart data and publishers (60 observations)
| Date | Pump, GBP/L | Crude proxy, local / L | Publisher |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-11 | 1.344 | 0.316 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-08-18 | 1.343 | 0.317 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-08-25 | 1.339 | 0.318 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-09-01 | 1.339 | 0.312 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-09-08 | 1.337 | 0.304 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-09-15 | 1.338 | 0.314 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-09-22 | 1.342 | 0.312 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-09-29 | 1.344 | 0.323 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-10-06 | 1.348 | 0.314 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-10-13 | 1.348 | 0.303 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-10-20 | 1.347 | 0.285 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-10-27 | 1.344 | 0.309 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-11-03 | 1.344 | 0.315 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-11-10 | 1.347 | 0.301 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-11-17 | 1.351 | 0.301 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-11-24 | 1.361 | 0.311 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-12-01 | 1.366 | 0.304 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-12-08 | 1.367 | 0.299 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-12-15 | 1.368 | 0.289 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-12-22 | 1.362 | 0.291 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2025-12-29 | 1.353 | 0.294 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-01-05 | 1.349 | 0.295 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-01-12 | 1.334 | 0.305 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-01-19 | 1.326 | 0.314 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-01-26 | 1.320 | 0.312 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-02-02 | 1.316 | 0.311 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-02-09 | 1.315 | 0.328 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-02-16 | 1.316 | 0.326 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-02-23 | 1.317 | 0.335 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-03-02 | 1.321 | 0.363 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-03-09 | 1.357 | 0.444 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-03-16 | 1.403 | 0.478 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-03-23 | 1.442 | 0.487 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-03-30 | 1.488 | 0.579 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-04-06 | 1.546 | 0.608 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-04-13 | 1.582 | 0.578 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-04-20 | 1.576 | 0.481 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-04-27 | 1.570 | 0.528 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-05-04 | 1.568 | 0.549 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-05-11 | 1.568 | 0.491 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-05-18 | 1.574 | 0.549 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-05-25 | 1.588 | 0.498 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-06-01 | 1.587 | 0.459 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-06-08 | 1.579 | 0.459 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-06-15 | 1.555 | 0.395 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-06-22 | 1.533 | 0.363 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-06-29 | 1.510 | 0.340 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-07-06 | 1.498 | 0.328 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-07-13 | 1.505 | 0.383 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-07-20 | 1.523 | 0.406 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-07-27 | 1.561 | 0.434 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-08-03 | 1.599 | 0.415 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-08-10 | 1.622 | 0.432 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-08-17 | 1.618 | 0.429 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-08-24 | 1.616 | 0.428 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-08-31 | 1.616 | 0.417 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-09-07 | 1.644 | 0.486 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-09-14 | 1.681 | 0.565 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-09-21 | 1.720 | 0.545 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| 2026-09-28 | 1.735 | 0.545 | DESNZ weekly road fuel prices |
| Delay | All changes | Oil increases | Oil decreases |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 weeks | 0.46 (59 pairs) | 0.56 (30) | 0.11 (29) |
| 1 weeks | 0.64 (58 pairs) | 0.68 (30) | 0.22 (28) |
| 2 weeks | 0.49 (57 pairs) | 0.46 (30) | 0.25 (27) |
| 3 weeks | 0.32 (56 pairs) | 0.27 (29) | 0.32 (27) |
| 4 weeks | 0.22 (55 pairs) | 0.26 (28) | 0.22 (27) |
| 5 weeks | 0.02 (54 pairs) | 0.04 (28) | 0.17 (26) |
| 6 weeks | -0.12 (53 pairs) | -0.18 (28) | 0.15 (25) |
| 7 weeks | -0.08 (52 pairs) | -0.17 (28) | 0.23 (24) |
| 8 weeks | 0.11 (51 pairs) | 0.04 (27) | 0.33 (24) |
At least 52 compatible weekly changes are needed; each correlation needs 12 pairs and variation in both series. Joins allow one day of reporting-date variation. Missing weeks are not filled. Each later pump change covers one week, not a cumulative response. Correlation does not measure a causal pass-through delay or prove that rises travel faster than falls. No forecast is implied. Benchmark and FX inputs are no more than 10 days old and never from a future date.