What Gas Costs
and Why
An independent guide to the price at the pumpData release · 30 September 2026

Follow the evidence

Oil-to-pump tracker

Compare local pump-price changes with dated crude and currency inputs at delays of zero to eight weeks.

Explore five years of compatible history, including separate comparisons for oil-price rises and falls. These are descriptive correlations, not forecasts or proof of causation.

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United Kingdom: gasoline example

Does local crude movement line up more closely with pump changes in the same week or later? This compares weekly changes at delays of 0 to 8 weeks over up to five years, using the latest continuous publisher and currency segment.

Pump price and local-currency crude, indexed to 1002025-08-11 to 2026-09-28. Navy is pump price; teal is crude. A data table follows.0521041562082025-08-112026-09-28Pump price (navy) · Crude in local currency (teal) · First paired date = 100
Relative movements, not a breakdown of pump costs. Crude is a proxy, not wholesale fuel.
Chart data and publishers (60 observations)
DatePump, GBP/LCrude proxy, local / LPublisher
2025-08-111.3440.316DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-08-181.3430.317DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-08-251.3390.318DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-09-011.3390.312DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-09-081.3370.304DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-09-151.3380.314DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-09-221.3420.312DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-09-291.3440.323DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-10-061.3480.314DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-10-131.3480.303DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-10-201.3470.285DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-10-271.3440.309DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-11-031.3440.315DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-11-101.3470.301DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-11-171.3510.301DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-11-241.3610.311DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-12-011.3660.304DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-12-081.3670.299DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-12-151.3680.289DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-12-221.3620.291DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2025-12-291.3530.294DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-01-051.3490.295DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-01-121.3340.305DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-01-191.3260.314DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-01-261.3200.312DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-02-021.3160.311DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-02-091.3150.328DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-02-161.3160.326DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-02-231.3170.335DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-03-021.3210.363DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-03-091.3570.444DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-03-161.4030.478DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-03-231.4420.487DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-03-301.4880.579DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-04-061.5460.608DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-04-131.5820.578DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-04-201.5760.481DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-04-271.5700.528DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-05-041.5680.549DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-05-111.5680.491DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-05-181.5740.549DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-05-251.5880.498DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-06-011.5870.459DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-06-081.5790.459DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-06-151.5550.395DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-06-221.5330.363DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-06-291.5100.340DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-07-061.4980.328DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-07-131.5050.383DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-07-201.5230.406DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-07-271.5610.434DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-08-031.5990.415DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-08-101.6220.432DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-08-171.6180.429DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-08-241.6160.428DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-08-311.6160.417DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-09-071.6440.486DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-09-141.6810.565DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-09-211.7200.545DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
2026-09-281.7350.545DESNZ weekly road fuel prices
Correlation of weekly changes, from -1 (opposite) to +1 (together)
DelayAll changesOil increasesOil decreases
0 weeks0.46 (59 pairs)0.56 (30)0.11 (29)
1 weeks0.64 (58 pairs)0.68 (30)0.22 (28)
2 weeks0.49 (57 pairs)0.46 (30)0.25 (27)
3 weeks0.32 (56 pairs)0.27 (29)0.32 (27)
4 weeks0.22 (55 pairs)0.26 (28)0.22 (27)
5 weeks0.02 (54 pairs)0.04 (28)0.17 (26)
6 weeks-0.12 (53 pairs)-0.18 (28)0.15 (25)
7 weeks-0.08 (52 pairs)-0.17 (28)0.23 (24)
8 weeks0.11 (51 pairs)0.04 (27)0.33 (24)

At least 52 compatible weekly changes are needed; each correlation needs 12 pairs and variation in both series. Joins allow one day of reporting-date variation. Missing weeks are not filled. Each later pump change covers one week, not a cumulative response. Correlation does not measure a causal pass-through delay or prove that rises travel faster than falls. No forecast is implied. Benchmark and FX inputs are no more than 10 days old and never from a future date.